What will happen to the euro rate by the end of 2026: expert forecasts

Updated: July 20, 2026

By the end of 2026, according to the forecast of the bankers of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine will increase to 52.5–53.5 UAH/€ from the current 51.16 UAH/€ according to the official rate of the NBU. This is approximately +3–5% in half a year — a little more than the expected growth of the dollar, because two factors are working on the euro exchange rate at once: the smooth devaluation of the hryvnia and the strong position of the euro against the dollar on the world market. We analyze the forecasts, the mechanics of the exchange rate and what this means for saving in euros.

What is the euro rate now?

As of July 17, 2026:

The symbolic mark of 50 hryvnias per euro was crossed for the first time in mid-January 2026, and the benchmark set by the government in the budget (49.4 hryvnias/€) was left behind by the market already in the first half of the year. It is significant that during July the dollar even depreciated against the hryvnia, while the euro continued to rise in price - this is the "merit" not of the hryvnia, but of the world pair EUR/USD.

Euro rate forecasts for the end of 2026

Please note: there are significantly fewer official forecasts for the euro than for the dollar - both the NBU and most analysts forecast the hryvnia/dollar pair, and the euro exchange rate is derived from it through the world market. Therefore, the range of 52.5–53.5 UAH/€ is, in fact, a combination of the USD forecast of 45.5–46.5 UAH/$ and the assumption that the EUR/USD pair will remain in the area of ​​1.14–1.16.

What actually determines the euro exchange rate in Ukraine

The exchange rate of the euro to the hryvnia is the product of two factors: the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar, which is controlled by the NBU in the mode of managed flexibility, and the world pair EUR/USD, which Ukraine does not influence at all. A simple example: 44.62 UAH/$ × 1.147 (EUR/USD) ≈ 51.2 UAH/€ — that's how much the euro is worth today. Therefore, the euro in Ukraine can rise in price even on days when the dollar stands still: it is enough for the euro to strengthen against the dollar in world markets after the decisions of the ECB or the Fed. This explains why the euro's swings are always sharper and less predictable than the dollar's — and why forecasting the euro requires monitoring two markets at the same time.

What factors will work until the end of the year

• International financing. The key support for the hryvnia is the EU credit package of 90 billion euros for 2026-2027 and other receipts from partners, which keep the NBU's reserves at record levels ($51.3 billion). As long as the money is coming in, there will be no sharp devaluation of the hryvnia, and therefore no jump in the euro.
• EUR/USD pair. The euro is holding firmer against the dollar than last year: the market expects a cautious policy by the ECB for inflation in the eurozone of about 1.8%. If the euro on the world market goes above 1.16–1.18, the exchange rate in hryvnias will increase even without any changes in Ukraine.
• Internal demand and security. Seasonal imports in autumn, the population's demand for currency and security risks work to gradually weaken the hryvnia against both currencies.

Will there be a euro for 55 hryvnias

In the basic scenario, no. In order for the euro to reach UAH 55 by the end of 2026, the coincidence of two events is required: the devaluation of the hryvnia to the upper limit of pessimistic forecasts (47+ UAH/$) and the simultaneous strengthening of the euro on the world market above 1.17–1.18. Each of the events is possible separately, but analysts assess their coincidence as unlikely. A realistic corridor for December is UAH 52-54/€.

Savings in euros: what you should know

Deposit rates in euros in Ukrainian banks are close to zero, so keeping euros on deposit is almost no different from keeping cash. A legal alternative with yield is currency OVDPs: issues in euro give about 2.9% per annum, and this income is tax-free. You can compare euro cash rates in banks and exchange offices before buying by comparing rates — the spread for the euro is usually wider than for the dollar, so the choice of the exchange point weighs more.

Frequently asked questions

What will be the exchange rate of the euro at the end of 2026?

Bankers of AUB forecast 52.5–53.5 UAH/€ under the condition of stable international financing. This is 3–5% higher than the current exchange rate of UAH 51.16/€.

Why is the euro growing faster than the dollar?

Because it is affected by two factors at the same time: the gradual devaluation of the hryvnia against the dollar plus the strengthening of the euro against the dollar on the world market. When both work in the same direction, the euro appreciates much faster.

What exchange rate of the euro is included in the 2026 budget?

The benchmark is UAH 49.4/€, and the market exceeded it already in the first half of the year. This is a technical assumption for budget calculations, not a forecast or a commitment of the NBU.

Which is better to hold: euros or dollars?

For the Ukrainian financial system, the base currency is the dollar: it has narrower spreads, more instruments and a more predictable exchange rate. It is logical to keep euros for those who have expenses in euros (travel, education, imports from the EU). A universal approach is to divide the currency part of the savings between both.

Will the euro be worth 55 hryvnias in 2026?

In the base scenario, no: for this, the devaluation of the hryvnia above UAH 47/$ and the strengthening of the euro on the world market above 1.17–1.18 should coincide. A realistic corridor for the end of the year — 52–54 hryvnias/€.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice.