Russian attacks on ports cut Ukrainian grain export forecast by 12%

Why Ukraine reduced the forecast

The main reason is systematic Russian attacks on the port infrastructure of Odesa region. In recent weeks, ports, terminals and even merchant ships have come under attack.

This is critical for Ukrainian agricultural exports, after all more than 90% of grain cargoes are traditionally transported by sea. When ports are disrupted or vessels cannot safely enter the waters, farmers and traders physically lose the ability to ship planned volumes.

What does this mean for agribusiness?

Lowering the forecast is not just a change in statistics. Smaller export volumes mean higher logistics costs, risks of delivery delays and potential loss of foreign exchange earnings of Ukraine.

Part of the grain will have to be redirected to alternative routes through land borders and ports of neighboring countries. However, they are not able to completely replace the throughput capacity of the Black Sea infrastructure.

According to analysts, long-term disruptions can lead to a shortage in the world market by 11 million tons of grain, and the potential losses of the Ukrainian agricultural sector may reach $3 billion.

What crops will be exported

According to the updated assessment of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine will potentially be able to export:

• - wheat — 13.5 million tons;

• - corn — 24 million tons;

• - barley — about 1.5 million tons.

Independent analysts also downgraded their forecasts. In particular, "APK-Inform" expects exports at the level of approx 39.4 million tons.

Why it is important not only for Ukraine

Ukrainian grain is an important component of the world food market. Therefore, problems with its export can affect not only Ukrainian manufacturers, but also prices and availability of food on foreign markets.

The future forecast will depend primarily on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea and the ability to restore the stable operation of ports. If the attacks continue, actual exports may be even lower than the current forecast.