The dollar exchange rate may remain within 45-46 hryvnias until the end of the year - the banker's forecast

The official exchange rate of the dollar in Ukraine since the beginning of 2026 has increased by almost 3 hryvnias - from 42 to more than 45 hryvnias, and on some days it exceeded the mark of 45.5 hryvnias/$. In the cash sector, the dollar is already worth more than 46 hryvnias in exchange offices. Despite this, by the end of the year, the exchange rate is unlikely to go far beyond the 45-46 hryvnias corridor, believes Serhiy Mamedov, chairman of the board of Globus Bank.

According to him, the current devaluation of the hryvnia is neither rapid nor unpredictable - it corresponds to the forecasts made at the beginning of the year. If inflation, according to the National Bank, reaches 12.5%, then a change in the exchange rate within the forecast range is a logical consequence, and not a sign of problems in the financial system. The banker emphasized that the purchasing power of Ukrainians is much more affected by inflation than by the exchange rate itself - the difference between 44 and 48 hryvnias per dollar, in his estimation, would not become critical either for business or for the population.

What puts pressure on the course

The main demand for foreign currency is formed by the import needs of the state and business - fuel, weapons, energy equipment. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance and the government need hryvnias for payments, which are obtained from the sale of foreign exchange earnings. Additional pressure arises when the procurement needs of the Ministry of Defense coincide with the withdrawal of dividends by the business abroad. At the same time, according to Mamedov, there is no shortage of currency as such - the funds come mainly from the international aid of partners, and not only from own exports.

The National Bank plays a key role in the market: thanks to currency reserves, the regulator remains the largest player in the interbank market and is able to influence the rate in both directions. According to the banker, the NBU deliberately allows greater volatility so that the exchange rate can both rise and roll back - this psychologically calms business and the population, demonstrating that growth is not a one-sided and irreversible process.

You can follow the current exchange rate of the dollar, euro and other currencies on the page Financier courses, and compare the offers of banks and exchangers - in the section comparison of courses.