Annual inflation exceeded NBU expectations

According to the National Bank of Ukraine, in September, consumer prices grew faster than the regulator predicted. The dynamics were affected by the increase in business costs for the production, transportation and storage of goods, as well as damage to production facilities and logistics facilities as a result of Russian attacks.

An additional factor was the increase in the price of fuel due to fluctuations in world prices for petroleum products. The increase in costs for energy resources and transportation gradually affects the cost of goods and services for end consumers.

In August, the situation was much calmer: during the month, prices increased by only 0.1%, and the annual inflation was 8.1%. The September indicators indicate a significant increase in inflationary pressure.

Fuel prices rose the fastest

Fuel became one of the main factors in the acceleration of inflation. According to the NBU, in September the annual price increase in this category reached 46.2%.

Gasoline and diesel fuel rose in price the most, while autogas prices rose more slowly. Fluctuations in world prices for petroleum products affected not only the costs of motorists, but also the cost of transportation, product delivery, and business operations.

The increase in transport costs creates an additional burden on manufacturers and trading companies. As a result, more expensive logistics can affect the prices of a wide range of goods.

Food prices rise due to crops and production costs

Annual raw food inflation in September accelerated to 6.7%. Certain categories were affected by reduced supply, smaller harvests, seasonal changes, and higher storage and transportation costs.

In particular, borscht vegetables became more expensive due to smaller harvests and reduced stocks. Cucumbers rose in price due to a seasonal decrease in the supply of open ground vegetables and a temporary shortage of greenhouse products.

After three months of decline, the price of eggs began to rise again. The NBU explains this, first of all, by an increase in the costs of keeping poultry. At the same time, the decline in apple prices slowed down mainly due to a low base compared to last year, while some other fruits were affected by a seasonal reduction in supply.

The situation on the meat market was heterogeneous. Pork fell more slowly due to rising purchase prices, reduced herds, increased demand from processors and more expensive feed and energy sources. Chicken prices were also affected by production costs and the general increase in the price of meat products.

Core inflation accelerated to 8.8%

In September, core inflation, which reflects more stable price changes and excludes some of the most volatile components, reached 8.8% in annual terms.

Processed food products rose in price the most: the annual rate of price growth in this category was 10.7%. Among the reasons, the NBU cites the increase in the cost of soft drinks due to the shortage of products after the damage to production facilities, as well as the increase in the price of raw materials and fuel.

Sausage products also became more expensive, in particular due to a slower decrease in the prices of meat raw materials and an increase in logistics costs. The price of cheeses was affected by the increase in the cost of production, and for fish and seafood, the complications of transportation, more expensive energy resources, and the increase in prices for imported products.

The annual growth of prices for non-food goods accelerated to 2.4%. According to the NBU, this indicator was affected by the consequences of Russian attacks on the warehouse and logistics infrastructure of trading and pharmaceutical companies.

Services and regulated tariffs are also becoming more expensive

In September, the annual growth of prices for services accelerated to 13.7%. One of the main factors was the increase in the cost of education in institutions of higher education, in particular due to the increase in teachers' salaries.

Housing rent also became more expensive. The market is affected by increased internal migration, which increases the demand for housing in certain cities.

Annual rates of growth of administratively regulated prices have reached 13.6%. This is due to the further increase in public transport fares, water tariffs and prices for alcoholic beverages. At the same time, the rate of increase in the price of tobacco products remained unchanged.

The NBU warns of further inflationary pressure

The National Bank expects that the consequences of Russian aggression and the war in the Middle East will continue to affect price dynamics. The high cost of fuel increases the costs of transportation and storage of products, and the damage to the infrastructure creates additional difficulties for manufacturers and trading companies.

These factors may support inflationary pressure in the coming months. At the same time, the final dynamics will depend on changes in global energy prices, the situation with the supply of goods and the further development of economic conditions.

The NBU must take into account current price dynamics and other economic indicators when updating the macroeconomic forecast. Its introduction is scheduled for October 29, 2026, and a detailed forecast should be published November 5 in the Regulator's Inflation Report.

The acceleration of inflation in September indicates that the pressure on household budgets and business spending is intensifying. It can be especially noticeable for consumers due to the increase in the price of fuel, food, housing rent and certain services.