Most Ukrainians expect the economy to deteriorate

Під час дослідження 71% of respondents said they expect the economic situation to worsen this winter. Of these, 47% predict a deterioration, and another 24% predict a significant deterioration.

Positive expectations remain much less common: only 3% of respondents expect improvement, another 4% expect significant improvement. At the same time, 17% believe that there will be no significant changes.

What do Ukrainians think about the situation in the country in general

The pessimistic mood is not only about the economy. 55% of citizens expect the general situation in Ukraine to worsen during the winter

At the same time, 25% of respondents believe that the situation will remain approximately at the current level. 12% of respondents expect improvement.

Thus, expectations regarding the economy turned out to be more negative than assessments of the country's prospects in general.

Energy also remains in the area of ​​greatest concern

Among the respondents 63% expect the situation in the energy sector to worsen. It also refers to the total share of those who predict deterioration or significant deterioration.

At the same time, a separate question directly related to the electricity supply situation compared to the previous winter. In this case 47% of respondents expect approximately the same levellike last year

Another 39% predict worsening, while only 9% expect improvement.

Expectations for electricity supply have barely changed over the year

Sociologists draw attention to the fact that estimates regarding electricity supply remain close to the results of last year's survey.

In October 2025 38% of Ukrainians expected the situation to worsen, 46% predicted no significant changes, and 11% expected improvements.

This year, the relevant indicators are 39%, 47% and 9%. That is, the structure of expectations regarding direct electricity supply has changed slightly.

What do Ukrainians expect from the situation at the front

Forecasts regarding the situation at the front turned out to be less pessimistic than expectations in the economy and energy.

33% of respondents believe that the situation will improve, another 30% do not expect significant changes. Deterioration is predicted by 22% of respondents, while 15% could not decide on an answer.

Thus, it is the economic and energy spheres that remain the directions in which Ukrainians most often expect negative changes this winter.

How the survey was conducted

The research of the sociological group "Rating" was conducted October 3-5, 2026 by the CATI method of telephone interviews.

They took part in it 1,000 respondents aged 18 and over from all regions of Ukraine, with the exception of temporarily occupied territories and territories where there was no Ukrainian mobile communication at the time of the study.

The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement. The maximum error does not exceed 3.1 percentage points with a confidence probability of 0.95.

Population expectations are not a forecast of the real state of the economy

The results of the study reflect subjective expectations of citizens, and not an official forecast of the development of the economy or the energy system.

At the same time, the distribution of answers shows that on the eve of the winter period, the biggest concern of Ukrainians is related to the economic and energy situation. 71% expect the economy to deteriorate, and 63% — negative changes in the energy sector, while regarding the situation at the front, the share of positive expectations exceeds the share of negative ones.