In Ukraine, fuel prices began to rise rapidly: diesel can rise to UAH 86 per liter

Why is fuel more expensive?

One of the main reasons for the price increase was the sharp rise in world prices for oil and oil products. Additional pressure on the market is created by the shortage of diesel fuel in Europe, the tense situation around the Strait of Hormuz, and difficulties with the transition of the Ukrainian market to gasoline of the E10 standard.

Global prices began to rise on July 7, but Ukrainian gas station chains raised the price of fuel about two weeks later. This suggests that operators have been holding down prices for some time with inventory bought at lower cost.

The escalation in the Middle East affected the oil market

The first factor was the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key oil transportation routes in the world.

Against this background, the price of brand oil Brent already exceeded 90 dollars per barrel, which automatically affected the prices of oil products.

The shortage of diesel in Europe exacerbates the problem

Another reason was the shortage of diesel fuel on the European market.

Following Russia's ban on diesel exports and attacks on Russian refineries, European diesel margins have risen sharply. At the same time, supplies of raw materials to refineries decreased, and Middle Eastern oil became less available due to logistical difficulties and higher transportation costs.

For Ukraine, this situation is particularly noticeable, because a significant part of imported fuel comes precisely through European logistics routes.

The transition to E10 gasoline created additional pressure

A separate factor was the introduction of July 1, 2026 standard gasoline E10, which contains from 7% to 10% bioethanol.

The transition required restructuring of logistics, new supply schemes and sufficient volumes of bioethanol. At the peak of the summer season, this led to temporary interruptions with A-95 gasoline at some gas stations, although later the situation partially stabilized.

Experts note that the current price increase is the result of the simultaneous influence of several factors — world prices, logistics costs, exchange rates and internal regulatory changes.

What prices can become

According to Serhii Kuyun, at the current level of wholesale prices:

• - diesel fuel may become more expensive at least up to UAH 86 per liter;

• - gasoline A-95 can grow to about UAH 83 per liter.

Further dynamics will depend on the situation on the world oil market, the hryvnia exchange rate, resource availability in Europe and developments in the Middle East.

The market is entering a difficult period

Experts warn that the current situation may turn out to be more difficult than in the spring. Seasonal peak consumption, higher oil prices, diesel shortages in Europe and limited global supplies are currently affecting the market at the same time.

In the event of further supply disruptions, wholesale and retail prices may continue to rise in the coming weeks.