The trade balance between Ukraine and Poland is shifting in favor of Warsaw: how economic relations are changing

How trade changed

The dynamics of Ukrainian-Polish trade over the past 25 years reflects both global economic processes and events that directly affected Ukraine.

In the early 2000s, mutual trade steadily grew, and Poland gradually established itself among Ukraine's key trade partners. However, the global financial crisis of 2008 almost halved trade between countries.

After the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014, Ukraine began to more actively reorient foreign trade to the markets of the European Union. Despite the economic difficulties of the first years of the war, mutual trade returned to growth by 2016.

Even the COVID-19 pandemic could not significantly slow down this process. Trade continued to increase in 2020-2021, setting the stage for record highs since the outbreak of full-scale war.

After 2022, Poland became one of the main logistics centers for the Ukrainian economy. Ukrainian exports to the neighboring country then reached 6.7 billion dollars, however, the situation changed in the following years. Due to restrictions on the import of certain types of Ukrainian agricultural products, transport difficulties and other barriers, the pace of exports began to slow down.

At the same time, Polish companies actively increased the supply of their products to Ukraine. According to the results of 2025, Polish exports reached approx 8 billion dollars, which further increased the trade imbalance.

Why is the balance shifting in favor of Poland?

Polish business increasingly actively uses the Ukrainian market for the sale of industrial products, equipment, construction materials, food products and consumer goods.

Instead, Ukrainian exporters continue to work under numerous restrictions. Among the main factors are barriers to agricultural products, problems at the border infrastructure, logistical difficulties and administrative restrictions. As a result, the rate of growth of Polish exports is significantly ahead of Ukrainian supplies.

At the same time, economic relations are increasingly influenced by political issues. Controversies surrounding historical memory, the Volyn tragedy and the activities of the UPA regularly become the subject of internal political discussions in Poland, which also creates additional tension in the bilateral dialogue.

Political cooling may also affect defense cooperation. Poland remains one of Ukraine's key partners in the field of security, but experts do not rule out that the deterioration of relations may complicate the implementation of promising joint projects, in particular in the field of production of unmanned systems and other defense technologies.

Despite all the contradictions, Ukraine and Poland remain strategically important partners for each other. For Kyiv, Poland is one of the main trade partners in the European Union and a key logistics route, while for Warsaw, the Ukrainian market remains one of the most dynamic export destinations. Further development of cooperation will depend on the ability of both states to separate political discussions from economic interests, eliminate trade barriers and maintain partnership in the conditions of war and the future reconstruction of Ukraine.