The NBU warned about the risks of a 50% bank profit tax: lending may slow down

BankingBy: Редакція ФінансистNovember 01, 20263 min read
The NBU warned about the risks of a 50% bank profit tax: lending may slow down

The NBU records the longest credit growth in 15 years

The head of the National Bank, Andriy Pishniy, said that the situation in the banking system is significantly different from the conditions of 2023, when the increased tax rate was first introduced as an exceptional measure. Nowadays, lending is again becoming one of the key areas of banking business.

According to the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine is experiencing the longest period of high credit growth in the last 15 years. At the same time, rates on new loans for businesses have already fallen below the level that existed before the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Pyshny, in order to maintain this trend, it is important to leave a sufficient part of the earned profit to the banks, because it is one of the main sources of equity capital formation and financing of new loans.

The net profit of banks decreased by a third

Increased taxation has already affected the financial results of the sector. In 2026, the net profit of banks decreased by approx a third in annual terms.

According to the results of the first eight months of 2026, the net return on capital of the banking system decreased to 22%, and in non-state banks - up to 16%.

The NBU also notes that the current profitability of Ukrainian banks is already commensurate with the indicators of financial institutions of neighboring EU countries that work in peaceful conditions. At the same time, it is lower than it was in the Ukrainian banking sector before the full-scale invasion.

For some banks, the return on capital has already fallen below its cost. This can make attracting investors and privatization of state-owned banks difficult.

A tax of 50% may limit the growth of lending

According to the National Bank's assessment, if the state continues to withdraw a significant part of bank profits, even if the current profitability is maintained, financial institutions will be able to increase lending at rates no faster than 15–20% per year.

The regulator emphasizes that banks need profit not only to pay dividends, but also to increase capital, cover risks and expand credit operations. Its reduction may limit the ability of the financial system to support businesses and economic recovery.

The Verkhovna Rada supported the extension of the 50% rate in the first reading

On October 27, 2026, the Verkhovna Rada adopted in the first reading draft law No. 15262, which provides for the establishment of the income tax rate for banks 50% in 2027 instead of the basic 25%.

Increased taxation of banks in Ukraine has been applied before. In 2023 and 2024, the rate was 50%, in 2025 it was reduced to 25%, and from January 1, 2026, it was again set at 50%. The current rules also provide for restrictions on taking into account losses of previous periods.

In May 2026, the NBU already warned that maintaining the increased rate could create risks for further credit expansion and limit banks' ability to finance the economy during the war.

Banks received over UAH 71 billion in net profit

According to the head of the parliamentary tax committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, as of September 1, 2026, the accumulated pre-tax profit of banks since the beginning of the year was about UAH 143.1 billion. This is about 5.3% more than in the same period last year.

At the same time, the net profit of the banking system was UAH 71.66 billion.

Thus, the discussion on the bank profit tax rate concerns not only additional revenues to the state budget, but also the financial sector's ability to support lending to enterprises. The final decision on the extension of the 50% rate for 2027 will depend on the further consideration of the draft law by the parliament.

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