Dollar, hryvnia deposit or OVDP: where to keep savings until the end of 2026

How much can a dollar bring

In July 2026, the official rate will be around UAH 44.6/$, the cash rate will be around UAH 44.5–45.2/$. Most investment companies and bankers expect 45.5–46.5 UAH/$ at the end of the year — a detailed analysis can be found in analysts' forecasts regarding the dollar exchange rate. Even if the upper limit comes true, the growth will be about 2-4% in half a year. That is, someone who buys a dollar today and sells it in December will earn approximately 9-18 thousand hryvnias on 10 thousand dollars — and this is without taking into account the difference between the buying and selling rate, which will eat up part of the result.
The scenario of a sharp devaluation — 47–50 hryvnias/$ — is considered unlikely by bankers: the NBU's international reserves reached a record $51.3 billion in July, and the regulator has plenty to dampen demand spikes. Such a scenario can work only with a simultaneous reduction in foreign aid and a worsening of the security situation.

What hryvnia instruments provide

Banks are currently offering 14–17.5% per annum for hryvnia term deposits. For half a year, this is 7–8.75% "dirty"; after income tax and military levy, about 5.4-6.7% remains. For clarity: a deposit of UAH 100,000 at 14% per annum for six months gives about UAH 5,400 in net income.
Domestic government loan bonds (OVDP) are more interesting than deposits from a tax point of view: their income is not subject to personal income tax, so the rate "on paper" is almost equal to the rate "on hand". Today, you can buy them online through the applications of most large banks and brokers, the entry threshold is from one bond (about a thousand hryvnias).

Comparison: baseline scenario for the second half of 2026

Calculations are approximate, according to the base scenario of analysts; actual rates depend on the bank, term and amount.

Why not choose one thing

Hryvnia instruments win in the base scenario, but it is the currency that protects in the pessimistic one. If external financing decreases in the second half of the year, the exchange rate may go above the consensus of UAH 46.5/$ — and then the dollar part of the savings will compensate for the loss of the hryvnia. Therefore, financiers advise not to keep everything in one instrument: a typical recommendation is to divide the funds between a hryvnia deposit or OVDP (the working part that earns money) and currency (the insurance part in case of shocks), and choose the proportion according to your own horizon: the faster the money can be needed, the greater the share of liquid instruments.
If you still decide to keep part of your savings in dollars or euros, it makes sense not to buy currency in the first-best department: the exchange rate difference between banks and exchangers within the same city often reaches 20-30 kopecks per dollar. You can track where it is more profitable on course comparison service Finansist.org — it collects current exchange rates of banks and exchangers in real time.

The material is informative and does not constitute individual investment advice.