Sea exports have become critically important
The problem has had a particularly acute effect on iron ore producers, who have traditionally focused on distant foreign markets — primarily China.
In 2025, Ukraine exported more than 31 million tons of iron ore raw materials. About 55% of this volume, or almost 17 million tons were transported by sea.
It was sea transport that allowed Ukrainian manufacturers to compete in distant markets at the expense of lower logistics costs.
After blocking the ports, this model actually stopped working.
Alternative routes may be more expensive than the products themselves
Reorientation of exports to the western border and European ports does not solve the problem completely.
For example, a ton of iron ore on the Chinese market costs about $100, while only rail transportation to Gdansk, Poland can add at least $68 per ton.
The route through Romanian Constanta can be even more expensive.
As a result, logistics costs actually eat away at manufacturers' margins. It becomes economically more profitable for individual enterprises temporarily stop production, than to continue production and sell products at a loss.
Two GZKs have already stopped
Ukrainian mining and beneficiation plants have already felt the consequences of problems with maritime logistics.
The work was temporarily stopped Poltava and Southern GZK.
If full shipping does not resume, experts believe that the downtime could spread to other businesses in the industry in the coming weeks.
This is particularly dangerous for MMC, as the stoppage of production has a chain effect: transportation, loading of metallurgical enterprises, foreign exchange earnings and tax revenues are reduced.
Ferrexpo may run out of resources
One of the most vulnerable manufacturers is Ferrexpo.
The company does not have its own steelmaking facilities in Ukraine, so its production largely depends on the ability to export finished products.
In the absence of additional financing and the restoration of full-fledged shipments, the company's available financial resources can only be enough until mid-September.
Long-term blocking of sea logistics in such a case directly affects not only production volumes, but also the financial stability of the enterprise.
Metinvest predicts a reduction in production
Problems also arose in Metinvest.
The company warned that production at the United GZK, which includes the Northern, Central and Ingulets combines, in August may decrease by approx. by 30%.
This will mean a drop in the monthly volume of transportation of products by GZK "Ukrzaliznytsia" approximately by 1.3 million tons.
Thus, the problems of port logistics quickly spread to the railway system and industrial enterprises.
The more expensive "Ukrzaliznytsia" exacerbates the problem
It became an additional factor of pressure increase of Ukrzaliznytsia tariffs by 30%.
In combination with the need to transport products by much longer routes, this significantly increases the cost of exports.
According to Metinvest estimates, the share of railway logistics in the cost of metal has already increased two or three times.
The problem is not only the cost of transporting ore. Steel production in itself creates significant volumes of rail transportation, so the increase in the cost of logistics affects the entire production chain.
The industry is simultaneously pressured by several factors
The problems with the ports arose against the background of already difficult conditions for the Ukrainian HMC.
Additional factors include:
- high cost of electricity;
- fall in world prices for iron ore;
- CBAM — mechanism of carbon adjustment of EU imports;
- trade quotas of the European Union;
- increase in the price of railway transportation;
- high cost of alternative logistics.
Therefore, manufacturers found themselves in a situation where costs are increasing at the same time, and opportunities to receive sufficient export revenue are decreasing.
Land routes cannot completely replace the sea
Even if companies completely reorient exports to railways, it will not allow to simply replace sea transportation.
European transport infrastructure has limited bandwidth, and much longer routes increase the cost.
It is especially difficult to transport large volumes of products to distant markets, where Ukrainian manufacturers compete with countries that have cheaper access to sea transportation.
That is why the blocking of ports for MMC is not just a logistical problem, but a factor of direct reduction in the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports.
Ukraine risks losing $500 million
According to the estimate Dragon Capital, if sea exports of iron ore remain blocked, Ukraine may lose approx $500 million in export revenue in the second half of 2026 alone.
However, the real economic consequences may be much wider.
A decrease in exports means:
less foreign exchange earnings → less taxes → less freight for Ukrzaliznytsia → reduced production → risks for employment in industrial regions.
That is, the problem of ports directly affects state finances and economic activity in entire regions.
Not only GZK is under threat
The problems of the mining and metallurgical complex may spread to adjacent industries.
Lower ore production means less work for rail transport, port infrastructure, repair facilities, energy and industrial equipment suppliers.
In metallurgy, the effect is even more extensive: a reduction in the supply of raw materials can limit the production of steel and metal products, and therefore reduce the export of already finished products.
For industrial cities and regions, this also means the risk of reduced employment and local budget revenues.
Restoration of the sea corridor becomes an economic issue
For Ukraine, the restoration of the safe operation of the maritime corridor is important not only from the point of view of exports.
This is the question preservation of industrial production, foreign exchange earnings, taxes and jobs.
At the same time, the state needs to work on reducing the cost of alternative logistics, in particular by revising the internal tariff burden and attracting EU support for transit routes.
If sea transportation remains unavailable for a long time, some Ukrainian enterprises may go from production reduction to complete shutdown. For an economy heavily dependent on exports, this poses the risk of much greater losses than directly $500 million in unearned revenue.
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