For the fifth month in a row, business in Ukraine positively assesses its activities: what supports the economy and what risks remain

The index of business activity remains in the positive zone

The National Bank of Ukraine published the results of the July survey of enterprises, according to which index of expectations of business activity (IODA) constituted 50.1 points.

Although the indicator decreased slightly compared to June, when it was equal 50.4, it remains above the psychological mark y for the fifth month in a row 50 points. It is this level that is considered an indicator of the predominance of positive business assessments over negative ones.

For comparison, in July 2025 the index was only 48.3 points, which indicated the pessimistic mood of entrepreneurs. The current result confirms that the Ukrainian economy is gradually adapting to work in war conditions and retains the potential for further recovery.

What is the index of expectations of business activity

The index of expectations of business activity is one of the key operational indicators of the state of the Ukrainian economy.

The National Bank calculates it every month on the basis of a survey of enterprises in the real sector of the economy. Business representatives assess changes in production, sales, order volumes, employment, product inventories, prices and other indicators compared to the previous month.

If the index exceeds 50 points, it means that most enterprises expect an improvement in the economic situation. If the indicator falls below this limit, negative evaluations prevail.

That is why IODA is considered one of the most effective indicators of business economic sentiment.

What factors support economic activity

Despite the difficult conditions of wartime, entrepreneurs note a number of factors that positively affect the work of companies.

It remains one of the main drivers international financial support, which allows the state to finance social programs, support the economy and implement recovery projects.

It also plays an important role stable domestic consumer demand, which provides the business with the necessary level of sales even in conditions of general economic uncertainty.

An additional impetus to economic activity is provided state investments in infrastructure reconstruction and road repair. Such projects support not only the construction industry, but also related fields — the production of building materials, transport, logistics, and the service sector.

Among the positive factors, the company also mentions:

• - stable operation of the energy system;

• - improvement of inflationary expectations;

• - seasonal revitalization of economic activity.

It was the combination of these factors that allowed the majority of companies to maintain positive evaluations of their own activities.

What risks continue to hold back business

Despite the positive signals, companies continue to work in conditions of high uncertainty.

The most serious risk factor remains Russian shelling of critical infrastructure, which can affect production processes, transport connections and energy supply.

They remain an equally important problem logistical difficulties, which complicate the supply of raw materials, the export of products and the organization of internal transportation.

Business also continues to feel shortage of qualified workers. Due to mobilization, population migration and lack of specialists, many enterprises cannot fully meet their production needs.

A separate factor of uncertainty remains exchange rate risks, which affect import purchases, production costs and financial planning.

The construction industry remains the most optimistic

For the fifth month in a row, enterprises in the construction industry show the best ratings of their own activity.

Positive moods are explained by several factors at once.

First of all, these are significant amounts of state funding for projects to restore damaged infrastructure, repair highways, and build new facilities.

In addition, the favorable weather conditions of the summer period allow construction companies to perform work as actively as possible, which also has a positive effect on the economic indicators of the sector.

Construction itself currently remains one of the main drivers of the country's economic recovery.

Industry and trade show improvement

Industrial enterprises also record positive changes.

Representatives of the sector note the improvement of the situation due to more stable energy supply and sufficiently high domestic demand for products.

Trading companies also positively evaluate the results of their activities for the second month in a row.

This is facilitated by a stable supply of goods, relatively active consumer demand and a gradual recovery of trade activity.

Although growth rates remain moderate, most businesses in these sectors expect continued stable performance.

The service sector is still the weakest

The only industry that continues to cautiously assess its prospects is the service sector.

Businesses in this sector are facing significant increases in operating costs, logistical difficulties and acute staff shortages.

Because of this, many companies do not yet predict a significant improvement in the situation, although the general economic background is gradually stabilizing.

Business expects a slowdown in price growth

The surveyed enterprises predict a further decrease in the rate of price increases.

It is about both the purchase prices for raw materials and materials, as well as the prices for own products, services and goods for further sale.

The only exception is the services sector, where companies expect a slight acceleration in the rate of increase in the value of their own services due to increased costs of doing business.

The labor market remains difficult

Despite positive economic expectations, the personnel situation continues to be one of the main problems of Ukrainian business.

Only enterprises in the construction industry plan to increase the number of employees, which is associated with significant volumes of restoration work and high demand for specialists.

At the same time, industrial enterprises and the service sector expect further reductions in personnel.

Trading companies do not predict significant changes and plan to maintain the current number of employees.

What the survey results mean for the economy

The July results of the index of business activity indicate that Ukrainian business continues to adapt to work in war conditions and gradually restores economic activity.

Positive expectations are supported by state investments, international financial assistance, a more stable situation in the energy sector and domestic demand. At the same time, further economic growth will largely depend on the security situation, the solution to the personnel shortage, the development of logistics and the preservation of international support.

Despite the existing risks, the fact that the index of expectations of business activity has remained above the 50-point mark for the fifth month in a row indicates a gradual strengthening of business sentiment and business confidence in the further recovery of the Ukrainian economy.